For those new to my Substack, here’s a short bio.
Did you see Michael? What did you think?
I’m aware of the allegations against the guy. And if he abused any child, that’s horrific. The film doesn’t go there, by the way—there are theories as to why, but I’ll move on.
The day before, while walking my dogs, I found myself wondering: how does the stock performance of listed companies vary based on the celebrities who endorse them?
I put Gemini to work and pulled together the chart below.
Correlation isn’t causation. I’m not suggesting certain celebrities drive better stock performance. Still, it’s interesting.
SRK’s numbers surprised me the most.
What stands out to you?
Would this change if we included private companies? Probably—but that data is hard to compile. In any case, private market valuations behave very differently from public markets, so combining them wouldn’t make much sense.
I was discussing this with my friend Vineet, who pointed out that the trend in my correlation chart may have more to do with the sectors these celebrities are associated with, than the celebrities themselves.
Some sectors have underperformed in India’s public markets over the past five years—perhaps that’s what’s showing up here.
So I asked Gemini for a sector-wise breakdown for each celebrity.
It doesn’t explain everything, but one pattern is clear: brands endorsed by SRK and Katrina Kaif (among listed companies) skew heavily toward FMCG.
And how has FMCG performed? Not great. Which explains the lower numbers for SRK & Katrina.
I’ll leave it there. It’s remarkable how easy it’s become to follow curiosity and generate insights that refine the mental models we use to see the world.
Have a great Sunday.
And again, if you are a new subscriber, here’s my short bio. Think of this newsletter as a means to be in touch with a curious friend who is still figuring out life. And if you are in the same boat, all the best.